THE USE OF HEALTH FORECASTING IN A UK GENERAL PRACTICE TO TARGET PREVENTATIVE CARE FOR PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE (COPD)

Bryden C¹, Bird W¹, Fernandes A², Pache S²

¹Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter  EX1 3PB

²The Parchmore Partnership, Croydon  CR7 8LY

Introduction

A general practice in London took part in the winter 04/05 health forecasting project, predicting risk of COPD exacerbation to target preventative care. The practice audited patients with moderate-severe COPD before and after the project to assess knowledge gained and relevant clinical indicators.

Method

In the practice of 13,000 patients, 98 (0.75%) were identified with COPD. 44 had moderate-severe COPD and of these 32 consented to take part in the project. Each week during Nov 04-Mar 05, the Met Office predicted risk of COPD exacerbation resulting in hospital admission as Average, Above Average, High, Very High based on standard deviations above the 1997-2003 mean. NHS Direct call centre nurses contacted all 32 patients when the forecast was at least Above Average. Patients were given advice on preventative measures to reduce the risk of exacerbation. 11 evidence-based criteria relating to COPD morbidity, were audited before (Dec04) and after (Mar05) the project using patient questionnaires and practice records.

Conclusions

COPD health forecasts can be used to prompt call centres to deliver education to COPD patients by phone during the winter. Patient knowledge and clinical indicators, known to affect the risk of exacerbation, showed significant improvements.

clare.bryden@metoffice.gov.uk

Funded by Parchmore Partnership

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